After a year of comparative stability in 2014, politics of hartal (street agitation) is back in Bangladesh. The country is almost paralysed for almost a month following strings of hartal staged by opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) for its campaign to oust Sheikh Hasina led Awami League government.
Analysis
After a year of comparative stability in 2014, politics of hartal (street agitation) is back in Bangladesh. The country is almost paralysed for almost a month following strings of hartalstaged by opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) for its campaign to oust Sheikh Hasina led Awami League government. The month long political violence has caused 60 lives, hundreds injured and thousands arrested. The present situation is putting a doubt on the future stability of the country.
In the 2014 parliamentary election, Awami League had an easy victory thanks to BNP’s boycott of the election doubting its impartiality. Soon after the election, BNP expressed its resolve to oust the government by launching protest movement. Initially, BNP’s movement failed to gather steam and there were no major impact.
An important aspect of the present spell of protest is use of violence. There has been significant increase on incidences of patrol bomb attack causing death of many people. Government has adopted harsh measures to control the opposition even confined the BNP chief Begum Khaleda Zia. In spite of strong measures to curb opposition protests, the situation is far from normal. Contrarily, opposition has declared to resolve to stronger movement to oust the government.
Use of hartal to bring down the government is not new to Bangladesh. Military dictator H M Ershad was ousted by mass movement jointly led by Awami League and BNP. Similarly, BNP was forced to resign from the government in the face of the movement carried by Awami League demanding establishment of caretaker government for supervising the elections in 1996. However, unlike the past, the present opposition has failed to effectively appeal to the people. Other than the cadres of BNP and its allies mainly, Jamaat-e-Islami, present spell of protests are devoid of popular participation.
Experience with both
The people of Bangladesh have already experienced the rule of the BNP and the Awami League, and are aware of the consequences of the BNP rule. The BNP has been discredited for encouraging corruption, mis-governance and encouraging right wing militancy in Bangladesh. Also, its close association with Jamaat-e-Islami, the party opposed birth of Bangladesh, is a cause of concern for people. Again, people are also questioning the rationale behind the BNP’s agitation as the feeling is BNP lost an opportunity by not participating in the election.
The people’s perception about Awami League is also not very positive. The popular feeling is that both BNP and Awami League are some sort similar in dealing with opposition. The country has developed a culture of winner takes all and represses opposition. This approach has led to hardening of stances and rule out any comprise. The political parties seem to fight till the end.
Non-compromising attitudes of both the political parties generated a feeling of disgust regarding popular politics in the country. Also, there is fatigue among people with the present politics of hartal that disturbed the daily lives of people. Dates of the school leaving examination had to be altered following the hartal. The country’s economy is also affected due to continuous shutdown. The shipments of the readymade garment, country’s key export product, are delayed.
Reluctant to interfere
The international community has restrained itself from muddling with the internal politics of the country. The western countries and also South Asian giant India’s scepticism with the BNP, because it is viewed to favour rightist elements, are hesitant to interfere. There is need control the situation for the stability of the country.
The people’s disillusionment with the popular political parties only increases fear to rise of radical forces in the country. These groups are already active in the country and looking for opportunity. Soon the situation stabilise in Bangladesh will be better for the country.
(The writer is a Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi)
Bhutan and Obama’s Asia pivot
Mihir Bhonsale
US President Barack Obama’s second visit to India as the chief guest for India’s 66th Republic Day celebration shows that South Asia has not waned on America’s list of priorities. Also, Bhutan, well known as the Last Shangrila in western countries, is yet to be on a president or a prime minister’s foreign visit itinerary, but still might benefit from Obama’s rebalance in Asia strategy.
Obama’s rebalancing to Asia strategy might have as well got a new dimension with the President’s visit to India with a boost to defence and civilian nuclear cooperation. Obama’s strategy of intensifying cooperation with India comes at the cost of China’s interests which is fast tightening its grip of influence over South Asia.
Bhutan has for long been India’s closest ally and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit, his first overseas visit as the Prime Minister, underlined the importance of Bhutan to India. U.S. being a global actor, still has to have diplomatic relations with Bhutan, but is Bhutan ready for it, is the question.
Strategic significance
Bhutan emerged out from the shadows of India in 2007 when the 1948 friendship treaty with India was revised. The revised treaty allowed Bhutan to pursue external relations on its own without interference from India. Between, the period 1948-2006 Bhutan’s foreign relations were managed by India.
Since, becoming a democracy in 2008 Bhutan has established formal relations with 25 of the 52 odd nations with whom she has diplomatic relations. It has also bid for the permanent seat of the UN Security Council. Gross National Happiness is a concept which Bhutan has pioneered to the world.
U.S. could be a natural ally of Bhutan considering Obama’s attempt to throttle China’s expansive agenda. Bhutan remains the only nation in South Asia that China is not close to. It was since 1948 when China annexed Tibet, that Bhutan has rebuffed attempts by China to forge close ties.
U.S. is also hard-pressed on finding new partners in the Indian Sub-continent, especially at a time when India remains isolated on multilateral forums ably managed by China. U.S. might reckon that Bhutan is the only all-weather ally of New Delhi in the sub-continent. Bhutan is also a buffer between two Asian giants India and China, making the Himalayan kingdom strategically important.
Re-balancing strategy
Strategic significance of Bhutan cannot be ignored by a global actor like U.S. while Obama attempts to take the ’Pivot to Asia’ strategy to its conclusion in the final leg of his presidentship. U.S. Ambassador to India, Timothy J. Roemer’s visit to Bhutan in 2011 was first such attempt at establishing contact with the Himalayan nation.
U.S.A.I.D. has also supported infrastructure projects in Bhutan, giving an economic angle to informal U.S.-Bhutan relations. Also, acceding the highest number (60,000) of Bhutanese refugees for the resettlement in U.S. has formed an atmosphere of goodwill between the two countries.
Moreover, Bhutan is a member of world forums like United Nations, World Trade Organisation and International Monetary Fund besides World Bank and Asian Development Bank and has sought a larger role in international affairs much to the liking of U.S.
Also, Bhutan now has found more equal footing in regional forums like SAARC, where its newfound economic good- hydropower is opening new vistas for energy security of the region. Thimphu has also recognised its tourism potential and has received tourists from across the world, a lion share amongst them also from the U.S.
Austerity measures
The Tshering Tobgay government is cautious in expanding Bhutan’s foreign relations. The Prime Minister has also ruled out setting up of any new diplomatic missions abroad. This is due to Tshering Tobgay’s austerity measures for checking unnecessary spending at a time when the country is still facing the pangs of poverty. However, how can the Harvard educated Prime Minister ignore U.S. whose top universities, the government of Bhutan had invited to set up campuses in Thimphu. It is another matter that the Education City project had to be scrapped, but in the information age it is difficult to remain isolated.
With opening of Bhutan’s media and increased penetration of internet, Bhutan’s opening up to U.S. is unavoidable. As Bhutan aspires to increase its global footprint, there is more hope for the two countries to come closer and establish relations at the highest level.
U.S. needs to continue the trend of visits initiated in 2011 by Ambassador Roemer for discussing areas of cooperation between the two countries and to establish diplomatic missions. Meanwhile, people-to-people ties might do the trick to bring closer the strongest democracy in the world and a nation that swears by the happiness quotient.
(The writer is a Research Assistant at Observer Research Foundation, Kolkata).
Country Reports
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