Election preparations in Assam, April, 2016
Source: PTI
ANALYSIS
India: Will ongoing assembly polls impact national politics?
By Satish Misra
National parties, including the ruling BJP and the main opposition Congress, and different regional parties are currently engaged in electoral campaigns in four states and one Union Territory. Elections in the states of Assam, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and the Union Territory of Puducherry are being held between April 4 and May 16. The results of all the five assemblies will be announced on May 19.
In none of the five, the BJP as the leader of the ruling coalition at the Centre, is in power. That is also why it is leaving nothing to chance to win at least in one if not in all the five. On the other hand, the Congress, which is ruling Assam and Kerala, is equally serious to retain power in at least one, if not in both.
The results of these elections are important not only for the Congress and the BJP, but also for regional parties like the AIADMK ruling Tamil Nadu, the Trinamool Congress that is in power in West Bengal and the NR Congress in Puducherry as they are pitching in to beat the anti-incumbency syndrome to return to power. In particular, chief ministers Jayalalitha (Tamil Nadu) and Mamata Banerjee (West Bengal) are leaving nothing to chance.
In all, the various national parties, their regional counterparts, and their coalitions, wherever applicable, are wooing 117 million potential voters, who are set to elect 824 MLAs. A section of the electorate in Assam and West Bengal have cast their franchise on April 4 and there was a heavy turnout of voters. In 18 seats in West Bengal and 65 seats in Assam, polling was 81 and 78 percent respectively. This has confirmed the citizenry’s commitment to democratic process and institutions.
Close contest in Assam
The election results are going to depend on host of local, regional and national issues. In Assam, where the Congress is pitted against a determined BJP–led alliance, it seems there is a very close contest.
The Congress, suffering from 15 years of incumbency factor, would, under normal circumstances, have lost the battle but it appears to be in a close contest. The Congress had won 78 seats in 2011 assembly elections, improving upon its own performance of 53 seats in 2006. In 2001 elections, it had won 71 seats.
The main challenge to the ruling Congress in the state is from the BJP–led coalition and the All India United Democratic Forum (AIUDF) which has been gaining strength for last 10 years. In 2006 elections, the AIUDF, which then was called Assam United Democratic Front (AUDF), had won 10 seats. The AIUDF, which mainly represents the voice and concerns of Muslims, increased its tally to 18 in 2011 elections. The AIUDF won three Lok Sabha seats in 2014 general elections.
The BJP, which had won five seats in the 2011 assembly electoral battle, improved its performance by winning seven Lok Sabha seats in 2014, with a vote-share of 36.50 percent, up from 15.30 per cent in 2009. If the Lok Sabha results were to be any indicator of the results this time, then the BJP and its alliance partners should win about 70-plus seats in the house of 126 which would enable it to form the next government in the state. Even in local body elections, held in 2015, the BJP had won 360 out of total 746 seats.
It seems that the BJP is facing a tougher battle on the ground. Though the BJP has forged an alliance with the AGP and the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), yet these alliances have angered the party’s traditional and loyal workers and leaders. Both the top leaders of the BJP, who are being projected and perceived as future chief ministers, are recent entrants to the party which has resulted in lot of disgruntlement among the rank and file and state party leaders.
The popularity of BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi had played a very big role in the Lok Sabha polls but the ‘Modi magic’ is on wane and that is why the party has restrained from overusing him in the electoral campaign unlike it did in previous assembly elections in 2014 and 2015.
The BJP is also facing some flak for non-fulfilment of promises like the grant of schedule tribe status to six tribes made during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. The land swap agreement with Bangladesh has also angered sections of the party’s traditional voter base. The BJP–led NDA government’s recent move of allowing Hindu Bangladeshi immigrants to stay in Assam has fuelled protests as the central government’s decision is against the Assam Accord of 1985.
Anti-incumbency in Kerala?
In Kerala, where the Congress–led United Democratic Front (UDF) and the CPM-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) have been alternatively in power for over three decades, the contest again is between the two fronts with the BJP-led coalition trying its best to make its electoral presence.
The UDF had come to power after winning 2011 assembly elections, replacing the LDF. The UDF has now 73 seats in a House of 140 and the LDF 67 members. Incumbent chief minister Oommen Chandy, who is suffering from the anti-incumbency, has also been involved in a few controversies which have negatively affected his image and that of his government, creating favourable conditions for the return of the LDF to power. However, LDF is also affected by factionalism led by two senior-most leaders — former Chief Minister V.S. Achuthanandan and state party secretary Pinarayi Vijayan.
The BJP has formed a third front by entering into an alliance with the Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BJDS), a new party formed by the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana (SNDP) Yogam, a powerful organisation of the backward Ezhava community, once the backbone of the CPM. The front has added to its strength roping in a minor faction of the Kerala Congress, led by P C Thomas, also.
While the main contest is between the UDF and LDF, results on May 19 would show if the BJP–led front is able to make a dent by winning a couple of seats or not. Irrespective of the number of seats that the third front is able to win, its polled percentage would be a pointer to the future politics of the state which till now has been broadly divided between the two coalitions of UDF and LDF.
In Puducherry, the contest is between the ruling All-India NR Congress (AINRC), the Congress-DMK alliance and the AIADMK. The AINRC has been joined by the PMK. The ruling AINRC seems to be well-placed.
Tamil Nadu: Four fronts in fray
In Tamil Nadu, the DMK and AIADMK alliances have been alternating in power since 1967 and efforts to break this pattern by forming a third front have not yielded much results. In the current elections too, there are four fronts in the fray. Apart from the two old alliances, the traditional competitors for power, there are two more this time. One is the People’s Welfare Front (PWF) which has five parties in its fold and the other is the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance.
The BJP–led NDA made serious efforts to forge alliance with some political parties, including the DMDK of popular Tamil film star Vijyakanth, but Vijyakanth decided to join the PWF which has projected him as its chief ministerial candidate.
In the 2011 election, the AIADMK led seven-party alliance had won 203 seats in the house of 234 members. The DMK-led five-party alliance had managed to win rest 31 seats. In the 2006 assembly polls, the DMK alliance had won 163 seats. The AIADMK-led three party alliance had won 69 seats while the rest two seats had gone to the DMDK and an independent. The DMDK had a vote share of 8.5 per cent.
The election here is on May 16 and the results on May 19 will show whether opinion polls showing victory for the ruling AIADMK front are correct or not. It would also be interesting to watch if the PWF is able to make a dent in the two-front monopoly of the political power in the state.
West Bengal: Interesting battle
A very interesting battle impacting the future realignment of political forces before the 2019 Lok Sabha polls is taking place in West Bengal where two traditional rivals in the state namely, the Congress and the Left Front, have reached an electoral understanding against the ruling All-India Trinamool Congress (AITC), which had wrested power in the state in 2011, ending 34 years of rule of the Left Front. The Trinamool Congress, which fought the election along with the Congress, had won a comfortable majority by grabbing 184 seats in the 295 (one nominated) member house, while the Congress had got 42 seats. The Left Front had won 62 seats.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, a four-cornered contest between the AITC, the Left Front, the Congress and the BJP–led NDA took place. The AITC won 34 seats with a vote share of 39.05 per cent while the Communist Party of India (Marxist) could just manage two seats with a vote share of 29.71 per cent. The Congress won four seats with a vote share of 9.58 per cent. The BJP too won two seats and its vote share went up substantially to 16.80 per cent from 10.66 percent in the 2009 general elections.
Polling in the state is being held in six phases with the first phase taking place in the Naxalite–affected areas on April 4 and 11. The main contest seems to be between the AITC and the Left Front-Congress combine.
The BJP, which had made deep inroads in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, seems to be not on a very strong wicket. Winning more than a couple of seats by the BJP would be considered a major achievement. The ruling AITC has anti–incumbency to fight and it has also been hit by few scams and scandals. However, AITC supremo Mamata Banerjee’s continues to remain popular.
‘Nationalism’ debate
The results on May 19 will show if the electoral understanding between the Left Front and the Congress could emerge as a working model for other assembly and national electoral contests. If the Left Front is able to improve its electoral strength substantially in the ongoing assembly elections, then a major realignment of political forces is likely to take place which would throw a major challenge to the BJP-led NDA of PM Modi in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
The results would also provide an answer to the ongoing ‘nationalism’ debate. The BJP has launched the nationalism debate aggressively and its leaders are using it by raising slogans of ‘Bharat Mata ki Jai’ in elections rallies.
Though use of aggressive nationalism is a move to use yet another emotional card to hide its failure to deliver on its promises during the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, if it can deliver political dividends then the party would try to capitalise on it in the assembly elections of the biggest state of Uttar Pradesh in 2017 and in other Hindi speaking states subsequently.
The author is a Senior Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.
Sri Lanka: ‘Re–defining’ or reiterating China–India equations?
By N. Sathiya Moorthy
Sri Lanka will ‘re–define’ the China-funded $ 1.4–billion Colombo Port City Project, Chennai-based The Hindu has quoted visiting Prime Minister Ranil Wickemesinghe as saying after talks with President Xi Jinping and his team in Beijing. Back home, sections of the Sri Lankan media reported deputy foreign minister, Dr Harsha de Silva, an economist by profession and reputation, getting emotional on the launch of the India-funded ambulance scheme across the island–nation.
Therein lies the wide gap between perceptions and performance in terms of India and China viz. Sri Lanka. China is offering big money and more when Sri Lanka’s needs are even more. India, in context, can offer relatively much less in financial terms, but has the political clout with much of the rest of the international community, wherever and whenever it mattered the most. In contemporary Sri Lanka, economic needs and politico-diplomatic demands compete for equal space, relevance and recognition — or, so it has seemed, thus far.
It was PM Ranil’s first China visit after assuming office in January 2015, after President Maithripala Sirisena taking over power. Earlier, he had waited for his formal elections in parliamentary polls of August, before making neighbouring India, his first overseas destination, officially. As if not to lose further time, after stalling the port city project, among others, after assuming power, PM Ranil has since appointed a three-member high-level committee, to clear all Chinese investments in a jiffy.
Need for caution
In seeking to ‘re–define’ the Colombo Port City project, the one-plus-year-old government has now decided to expand the scope, from land–reclamation and realty scheme under predecessor President Mahinda Rajapaksa into an business and financial hub, open to international players, including Indians. PM Ranil told The Hindu in Beiijing that some Indian investors have already talked to him about it. His government could now be expected to take forward the mutual interest(s) viz India while working on the details in the coming weeks and months.
India’s concerns, and those of Sri Lanka even more, should also be over the kind of business/financial transactions for which the new port city is to be put to use by ‘international players’. There is no denying the limited opportunities for Sri Lanka to enter into nationally–profitable economic ventures of the kind, over the short, medium and long terms.
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