Night view of the Port of Chittagong
Photo: Moheen Reeyad
ANALYSIS
Bangladesh: Coastal shipping with India to enhance connectivity
By Joyeeta Bhattacharjee
The commencement of coastal shipping between India and Bangladesh is a landmark for bilateral relations of these neighbours. It will not only strengthen connectivity between the two countries but will substantially contribute to the growth and prosperity of the South Asia region.
Improving connectivity has been one of the major focus areas for improving the bilateral relations. And the two nations signed a coastal shipping agreement during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Dhaka in June 2015. Later, the two countries signed various deals like the standard operationalisation agreement to make coastal shipping functional. Following this, an Indian container vessel left from the Khrishnapatnam port in the south Indian state of Andhra Pradesh this week.
The direct coastal shipping link will boost trade between the two countries. It will be helpful in easing up the movement of cargo. Earlier, owing to lack of direct shipping between the two countries, cargo between the two countries used to travel to either Colombo or Singapore, and then reloaded to feeder vessels to destination ports in each other. It was extremely time-consuming, circuitous, hence also entailed avoidable higher costs. Now, it would take about a week or 10 days, from 30-40 days earlier.
Two benefits
Two major benefits accrue from coastal shipping between the two neighbours. One, it will help reduce congestion in land ports. Much of the trade between the two countries take place via land ports and they mostly remain clogged because of the heavy traffic. Two, it will contribute to the growth of the shipping industry and ancillary services sector in Bangladesh, and thus to the nation’s economy.
To improve connectivity, India and Bangladesh have also signed an MOU to access Chittagong and Mongla Port for movement of goods to India’s land-locked north-eastern states, bringing additional benefit for Bangladesh as well. India has been heavily investing in the development infrastructure in Bangladesh, serving the interests of both. India had already provided a $-800 million line of credit and $ 200 million in grants to aid the development of infrastructure in Bangladesh. It has promised an additional $ 2-billion line of credit.
Inland water transport
The thrust on connectivity is also helping Bangladesh to improve its inland water transport. The existing inland water connectivity between the two countries is working below its potential. The two governments of are also focusing now on improving inland water communication. India is helping Bangladesh not only to upgrade the protocol routes by helping in dredging rivers and but also with other technical knowhow. Efforts are also on to revive old link-routes. Considering the developments, river and sea are going to be major source of connectivity between India and Bangladesh.
India’s motivation in all this is to have an alternate gateway for its north-eastern states and to boost trade with Bangladesh, one of the major regional trading partners in the South Asia. The opening of sea trade-links with India has also created an opportunity for Bangladesh to increase trade with Bhutan and Nepal. The two Himalayan countries can use Bangladesh ports for shipping their goods from India by sea. The benefit will be furthered even more when the BBIN motor vehicle agreement becomes functional.
It’s time for the countries of the region to think south as a composite whole and work together for its progress and prosperity. Hence opening of maritime seat-trade link between India and Bangladesh is is a welcome first step of sorts.
Dr. Joyeeta Bhattacharya is Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.
Afghanistan: Plan-B for peace missing, still
By Kriti M. Shah
On 28 March 2016, three rockets were fired at the Afghan parliament building while the House was in session. The Taliban claimed responsibility for the attack, which fortunately left no casualties. The attack took place a day after a Pakistani Taliban breakaway group, Jamaatul Ahrar, had bombed a crowded park in Lahore, Pakistan killing 73 children and women.
The attacks in Kabul and Lahore are another example of the determination on part of the Taliban forces to destabilise the Afghan state and resist any attempts at peace between the government and the insurgents. With no progress being made for peace talks following meetings of the Quadrilateral Coordination Group (comprising Afghanistan, Pakistan, China and the US), it is only a matter of time before the government is forced to confront other options for peace in the country.
At present, not only has the Taliban upped their offensive in the country, capturing many districts from government control in the south, their outright refusal to be part of any reconciliation has also boxed Kabul into a tight corner in the war against extremism. They need to determine what could be their ‘Plan-B’ if and when peace talks with Mullah Mansour and other groups fall through. Any failure to consider the possibilities that regional integration hold in securing Afghanistan’s future will result in an indefinite prolonging of the Taliban war and reversal of the gains made over the last 15 years.
No short-term solutions
There are no short-term solutions to stabilise and secure Afghanistan. Currently the country is marred by economic instability, political weakness and security threats from the Taliban and the ‘Islamic State’. President Ashraf Ghani, who has staked significant political capital on an outreach to Pakistan and peace talks with the Taliban, needs to realistically consider the possibilities for success in reconciling with the insurgency.
The Taliban is split into several groups and it remains likely uncertain which groups are willing to lay down arms and talk. Hence, it is highly unlikely that Ghani and the rest of the QCG will be able to make peace with all the armed factions. This is especially the case since the Taliban considers themselves ‘winning’ and for good reason. They have widened their reach to control most territory, with 30 percent of the districts falling under their control.
Any inclination towards laying down arms and negotiating with the government, when they are on a definitive upswing, will be seen a sign of defeat among the rank and file of the group(s). It is more so in respect to the ISIS, with whom the Taliban is competing for territory and foreign fighters.
The US and Afghanistan can no longer put all their eggs in one basket, and hope for a positive outcome from peace talks. Their Plan-B should no longer be to make their Plan-A work. Afghanistan needs to secure international and regional support in order to begin alleviating its domestic problems. A failing economy has implications for political stability. This in turn impacts security dynamic. Further developments in the country is therefore highly dependent on how regional actors, such as China, India, Russia, Iran and Central Asian states, engage with Afghanistan economically, politically and militarily.
China has stated their desire to be more engaged in Afghanistan. While they are already part of the peace talk process, they must further expand their relationship with the country by helping in reconstruction and infrastructure development. China must also ensure that they design and invest in projects that have real and tangible benefits to local communities. Welcoming Afghanistan in its ‘One Belt One Road strategy’ will further help trade and investment flows in the country.
India, a long-time friend of Afghanistan, can continue to help the nation by fulfilling equipment, logistics and personnel needs of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). Providing training to the ANSF and the country’s fledgling air force, India can help Kabul deal with persistent security threats.
Russia and Iran can work to help Afghanistan combat cross border terrorism as well as help its counter narcotic operations. Since over 90 percent of the world’s opiates come from Afghanistan and are smuggled into Iran and Pakistan, Teheran can strengthen its border with Afghanistan to prevent the export of opium from the country. This will greatly benefit Kabul, as the Taliban profit greatly from their drug smuggling activities. In addition, all these countries will prefer a regional approach to assisting Afghanistan, instead of solitary assistance.
Other neighbours such as Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan can also benefit from further engagement with Kabul enhancing its energy security, by proposing small gas pipeline projects. This will not only enhance their international presence but will also bring them closer to South Asia and other regional states.
Little progress
While calls for greater engagement in the region vis-à-vis Afghanistan are not new, little progress has been recorded in this regard. Efforts to forge a regional approach to strengthen Afghanistan have been further complicated by Pakistan, which views any Indian action in Afghanistan with much suspicion. However, given China’s influence over Pakistan, the former could encourage Pakistan to play a more constructive role and view regional cooperation in and on Afghanistan as beneficial to itself as well.
While several multilateral forums such as the Heart of Asia, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and organisations such as South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) have addressed regional support to Kabul, they have not addressed the manner of the desired support. Coupled with neighbourhood countries’ perceptions of each other, such forums have had a limited impact.
While there are challenges to greater engagement among regional actors, Afghanistan must demonstrate that it’s internal political, economic and security situation is improving. It must also remember then peace talks and regional cooperation go hand in hand. Regional engagement in Afghanistan’s stability is not only a product of peace talks but also leads to it. Once Kabul is successfully able to develop an international consensus on engagement, the Taliban may agree that to sit down at the table and discuss possible peace.
Kriti M. Shah is Research Assistant at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.
COUNTRY REPORTS
Afghanistan
Taliban targets parliament
On 28 March, three rockets were fired at the new Afghan Parliament building with one falling inside the building. The lower house was in session during the attack. The rocket strike caused no casualties. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid claimed responsibility for the strike.
For more information, see: Three rockets fired at Kabul’s new parliament building
Polls chief quits
On 26 March, Ahmad Yusuf Nuristani, the head of Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission (IEC), resigned. A spokesman for the IEC stated that Nuristani had resigned in the “national interest.” Afghan President Ashraf Ghani accepted the resignation. Nuristani had repeatedly criticized government interference in the election, and his resignation has raised concerns regarding the effort to organize Parliamentary elections scheduled for 15 October 2016.
For more information, see: Afghanistan’s Top Electoral Official Resigns
Govt facing defections?
The Afghan government is facing a wave of defections and calls for new elections from former supporters, according to a report by the Washington Post on 29 March. Anwar ul-Haq Ahadi, a former supporter of the government and former finance minister under Hamid Karzai, commented: “If it performed well, people were willing to give the (national unity) government the benefit of the doubt. But it hasn’t. It has proved disastrous for this country.”
For more information, see: A wave of political defections spells new trouble for Afghanistan
50,000 posts vacant
On 30 March, Afghanistan’s lower house of parliament announced that 50,000 government positions remain vacant while government officials put the count at 25,000. Ahmad Massod Tokhi, the head of the Independent Administrative Reform and Civil Service Commission, placed the number of vacancies at 25,584 spots in 47 departments in all 34 provinces.
For more information, see: 25,000 government posts lying vacant, Wolesi Jirga told
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