Security challenges remain

With NATO's combat mission in Afghanistan finally coming to an end this past week, the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) will now be responsible for security throughout the country.

Analysis

With NATO’s combat mission in Afghanistan finally coming to an end this past week, the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) will now be responsible for security throughout the country. Although a few thousand foreign troops will still conduct counter-terrorism operations against the Taliban and the al Qaeda, the bulk of the residual force has shifted to a supporting and training role. As Afghanistan gears itself for the beginning of a new phase in the country’s modern history, a number of security challenges remain.

For starters, the Taliban continues to remain a resilient force. The weeks leading up to the final military drawdown have been among the most violent in the past few years. Civilians and public places have been targeted with an increasing frequency with the objective to instil a sense of fear among the masses, especially against the backdrop of new fledgling government in Kabul and the withdrawal of the foreign forces. In fact, according to UN estimates, civilian casualties have seen a sharp increase in 2014 as compared to the last few years. From the broader strategic perspective, the Taliban has continued to make significant inroads into southern and eastern Afghanistan highlighting the military potency of the group in capturing and holding territory.

It is the continuing strength of the Taliban that forced the new government to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement with the US and the Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with NATO within days of assuming office, but also forced Kabul to lift the ban on night raids – seen as an effective military strategy – that had been banned by the predecessor Hamid Karzai’s government. Moreover, US President Barack Obama agreed to increase the number of US troops – albeit a marginal increase — that will remain behind in Afghanistan.

Equal, if not stronger

Their military resilience also ensures that the prospects for a peace agreement with the group remain remote. The group, which has faced military reversals over the years and is said to be suffering from war fatigue, has not been significantly suppressed for it to be compelled to enter into peace talks with the government.

In fact, if the group does agree to enter into any negotiations with the government, its present military strength would allow it to bargain with the government from an equal, if not stronger, vantage point. Such a scenario may result in the government granting concessions to the Taliban, which in the long run could have a significant detrimental impact on the security situation in Afghanistan.

It seems unlikely that this military balance would be tilted in favour of the Afghan government in the near future. If at the peak of the US surge in 2009-11, the foreign troops were unable to significantly undermine the insurgency, the impact of a considerably smaller residual force remains to be seen. This problem is compounded by the fact that the ANSF will now take the centre stage.

While the ANSF has shown steady progress over the years, there are concerns about its ability to operate against the insurgents on its own. It suffers from a number of problems – lack of appropriate equipment, poor leadership, high rate of illiteracy and attrition, corruption and an inability to manage its own day to day affairs – which has rendered it incapable of achieving the required breakthrough in the existing military stalemate in the near future. It is considered, at best, to be a force capable of keeping the insurgents at bay but even the sustainability of that minimum achievement will depend on the continuation of foreign aid.

Besides this unfavourable military equation, the Taliban is likely to use the foreign military presence to continue its insurgent activities. The acting chief of the National Directorate of Security claimed this week that the Taliban, in the wake of the military withdrawal, should no longer have any excuse to continue its war in Afghanistan.

’Not fooled by transition’

However, the Taliban, on numerous occasions, have insisted on a complete withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan as a prerequisite for any political settlement. It, thus, comes as no surprise that despite the withdrawal, the Taliban issued a statement claiming that it cannot "be fooled by transition of ISAF missions or by changing the name of NATO missions". The group warned that it will continue its "jihad and struggle so long as a single foreigner remains in Afghanistan in a military uniform".

In a situation like this, a strong political leadership is an absolute necessity to guide the nation at such a critical juncture. Some positives in this regard can be seen in some of the foreign policy decisions taken by President Ashraf Ghani. This includes the signing of the strategic pacts with the US and NATO. But it is his out-reach to Pakistan that could have a bigger impact on the security situation in the country.

Given Pakistan’s support and links with the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani Network, its future policies towards Afghanistan are extremely critical for the country’s future. As of now both countries have agreed to enhance border cooperation and agreed to jointly tackle the menace of terrorism in the region. Although, this is a good start, especially given the state of bilateral ties towards the end of Hamid Karzai’s reign, only time will tell how constructive a role Pakistan can play in the future.

However, at the same time, differences between President Ghani and his Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah that has led to a delay in the formation of the cabinet – months after both assumed office – has given rise to a sense of disappointment. The longer it takes for the two leaders to form the cabinet, the tougher it is going to become for the government to deal with the various challenges confronting it.

(Aryaman Bhatnagar is an Associate Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi)

Bangladesh: President Hamid’s India visit strengthens bilateral ties

Joyeeta Bhattacharjee

Bangladesh President Abdul Hamid’s visit to India, from December 18-23 on the invitation of Indian President Pranab Mukherjee, was far beyond than just a goodwill visit. The visit devoid of any landmark outcome still highlighted importance Bangladesh gives in nurturing its relationship with India. The visit provided major boost to the bilateral relationship.

It was Hamid’s maiden visit to India as the President of Bangladesh. He met India’s top leadership, including President Mukherjee, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj.

He also visited West Bengal, one of the Indian States bordering Bangladesh, and met Governor Keshari Nath Tripathi. In the meetings, the President discussed various issues of bilateral importance which helped both the sides to put across their view points. A significant aspect of the visit was the display of the warmth by the leadership of the two countries.

Upward trajectory

India-Bangladesh relations are on an upward trajectory for the past few years. The last United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government in India and the Awami League government in Bangladesh deserve the credit for transforming the relationship. The leaderships of both the countries took special initiatives to improve relations. Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina visited in India in 2010 and then Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh visited Bangladesh in 2011, giving a big boost to the relationship.

The defeat of the UPA in the 2014 national elections led to some speculation about the future of the relationship. A major reason for this scepticism was the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) stand on the issue of the illegal migration from Bangladesh during the election campaign. Prime Minister Shiekh Hasina herself had expressed concerned over this. Observers of the bilateral relationship suggest it was this concern that led Bangladesh to send Parliament Speaker, and not the President or the Prime Minister, in response to Modi’s invitation for the oath-taking ceremony of his BJP-NDA government