South Asia Weekly Report | Volume IX; Issue 22

Wreckage of the destroyed vehicle, in which Mullah Akhtar Mansour was allegedly travelling in the Ahmed Wal area in Balochistan

Photo courtesy: Abdul Malik/AP

ANALYSES

Pakistan: Life after Mullah Mansour

By Kriti M. Shah

The recent killing of Afghan Taliban leader Mullah Mansour by a United States’ drone in Pakistan has caused a major upheaval in the relationship between the two nations. The attack, which took place in Balochistan without prior permission from the Pakistani government, has caused a familiar sense of outrage in the Pakistani establishment, reminiscent of the 2011 raid in Abottabad that killed Osama bin-Laden. The killing of Mansour is significant, as it not only deals a major blow to the Taliban insurgency, but also validates Afghan and US claims that the Taliban moves around freely in Pakistan, plotting and planning attacks against Afghanistan.

The US raid has set in motion a series of stern statements from the Pakistan civilian and military establishment, calling the attack a violation of the nation’s sovereignty and international law. Pakistan Interior Minister Chaudhary Nisar Ali Khan said that the strike would have “serious implications” for US-Pakistan relations. As he added, if every country targeted perceived threats abroad, “there will be the law of the jungle in the world”. The US is however, making no apologies with President Barack Obama calling the attack an important “milestone” in the US’ efforts to bring peace and stability to Afghanistan and has once again called upon Pakistan to deny terrorists a safe haven.

Impact of killing

The killing of Mansour less than a year after he officially became the leader of the Afghan Taliban poses a major setback for the insurgency movement. It is a hopeful possibility that the new Taliban leader Mullah Haibattullah Akhunzada and other commanders will now feel more threatened and vulnerable, given the US’ determination in rooting them out with complete disregard for Pakistan’s territorial integrity. While in the short run, the killing may provoke a series of attacks and killing in Afghanistan; the hope is that now leaders of the group would be more amenable to peacemaking.

The fact that Mansour was travelling in Pakistan a few miles from the Afghan-Pakistan border also ends Pakistan’s game of plausible deniability regarding the whereabouts of the Taliban. The presence of Mansour within Balochistan is a major vindication for the Afghan government that have long claimed that the Taliban use Pakistan as a safe haven, often travelling freely within the country. Pakistan civilian and military leaders can no longer claim that the Taliban is not in Pakistan and will be further pressurised to act against their freedom.

Pakistan’s double-speak

However, embarrassed by the attack and failure of intelligence in learning about the US operation, Pakistan seems unable to learn from its mistakes. Over a week after the attack, the government has not answered questions related to the attack or provided any plausible explanation as to why Mullah Mansour was travelling in the country under a fake name with a Pakistani passport.

The government seems more interested in probing the role that Iran had in sheltering Mansour, given that the passport allegedly recovered from the scene of the drone strike, had an Iranian visa. Their lack of gratitude toward the US for taking out a known terrorist is not surprising given that the government made similar statements regarding infringement of their sovereignty and territorial integrity after the Bin Laden raid. In both cases, the government failed to provide a reason for why known fugitives and wanted-terrorists were living freely within their borders.

The only difference between the two attacks (on Mansour and Bin Laden) is the change in narrative that the government and military has attempted to propagate since 2011. While the military has undertaken operations in the northwest tribal areas of the countries, tackling terror and extremists groups threatening Pakistan, they have turned a blind eye towards those destabilising Afghanistan.

The Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani Network have been allowed to function freely within Pakistan. The Pakistani military has repeatedly stated their intention that they are doing everything they can to purge terror groups from their borders. Mansour’s killing in Balochistan is in sharp contradiction to the military’s story and embarrasses Pakistan greatly.

While Sartag Aziz, advisor to the Prime Minister on foreign affairs, has stated that Pakistan is committed to continuing efforts of reconciliation within the framework of the Quadrilateral Coordination Group, the time for peace is long gone. The attack is the beginning of a new message directed at both the Taliban and Pakistan that the United States will no longer tolerate the strategic challenge posed by the Taliban leadership by virtue of being in Pakistan.

While the US-Pakistan relationship is prone to ebbs and flows, the strike against Mansour signals that the US has given up on peace talks and, like the Afghan government, is willing to militarily deal with the Taliban. The blocking of the F-16 fighter jets to Pakistan unless it cracks down on the Haqqani Network is an example of the growing frustration of the US with Pakistan’s dilly dallying.

The thinning patience of the Afghan government and the United States with Pakistan is unlikely to change in the short term. While Ashraf Ghani has shifted from his friendly diplomatically outreach to Pakistan, the US seems to be taking the cue that is enough is enough. While Mansour’s death will not pave the way for reconciliation in Afghanistan, the US and Afghanistan must remain committed in its fight against the Taliban.

The Taliban’s rejection of peace talks and increasing closeness with al Qaeda and the Haqqani Network means the insurgency group is unwilling to give up the fight. The fact that the US is willing to cause a setback in its relationship with Pakistan, who it considers an ally, is demonstrative of the US commitment to Afghan stability. Pakistan, on the other hand must buckle down for a long summer of Taliban offensives, realize that reconciliation at this stage is impossible and begin to chart a new dimension of military engagement against the Taliban and the Haqqani Network. If it fails to do, it knows what will happen.

The writer is a Research Assistant at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.

Birgunj, the gateway to Nepal

By Anasua Basu Ray Chaudhury

Birgunj, the second largest city after political capital Kathmandu, is the Nepal’s commercial capital and the main transit point for the country’s international trade. Around 60% of Nepal’s foreign trade passes through Birgunj, located in South Central part of the country in the Terai plains about 89 km South of the capital Kathmandu.

The other side of the border with India is Raxaul, a border town of east Champaran, Bihar, the most active entry point to Nepal from Patna and Kolkata. After four consecutive months of turbulence at the border till the first week of February due to protests by the Madhesis and unofficial blockade by ‘the southern neighbour’, Birgunj customs office has exceeded its monthly revenue target for the first time in six months signifying improvement in trade through the Birgunj-Raxaul border point.