After the horrific attack on the Army Public School in Peshawar in December last year by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants, Pakistan is trying to crack down on militancy in the country.
Analysis
After the horrific attack on the Army Public School in Peshawar in December last year by Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants, Pakistan is trying to crack down on militancy in the country. Militant violence has been a cause of immense concern to the nation for several years and the Peshawar massacre has been seen as a defining moment in the country’s history. While the government has taken several steps to limit the power and reach of terrorist groups in the country, it is questionable if these moves add up to a larger cohesive solution.
A week after the December 16 attack, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, a day before the Christmas, announced the National Action Plan (NAP) which was meant to be a short-term agenda against terrorism. Immediately after the attack, the Prime Minister had announced that the moratorium on the death sentences of convicted terrorists would be lifted and the NAP emphasised that the execution of convicted terrorists will continue. This move has caused concern among human rights groups across the world.
Another clause involved opposition in the establishment of special trial courts for two years for the speedy trial of terror suspects. These special military courts are to be staffed by military officers and are meant to hold fast trials. In a country that has seen more military rule than successive democratic transitions, the establishment of military courts that fall outside the traditional judiciary should be a matter of concern.
The NAP also affirms a commitment to ensure that no armed militias are allowed to function in the country. In January, there was speculation that the government would ban the Haqqani Network and the Jamaat-ud Dawa (JuD) among other militant organisations that were functioning in the country. Pakistan has, in the past, used these two organisations as well as others as proxies in Afghanistan and India to pursue its own goals.
Choking terror-funding
Many commentators used the ban as the proof that the country had finally woken up to the terrorist threat that had engulfed it but the ban itself was shrouded in mystery. While the US said that it had received no confirmation of the ban, Pakistan’s Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, at a press conference, refused to comment on the issue. Pakistan’s High Commissioner to India, Abdul Basit, also said that the JuD had not been banned but that its accounts had been frozen. Frozen accounts also fit into the NAP’s clause of choking financing for terrorists and terrorist organisations.
The NAP listed the formulation of a comprehensive policy to deal with the issue of Afghan refugees, beginning with registration of all unregistered illegal refugees. While there may not have been much official movement on this clause, there have been disturbing reports of male members of Afghan families in Pakistan being detained and sometimes mistreated to encourage them to leave the country.
According to media reports, aid agencies and Afghan officials have noticed a trend after the Peshawar attack of 150-300 families returning to Afghanistan per day. Before the attack the number of returnee families per day was around 15. According to the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), over 33,000 Afghans have returned since January. That number is over one and a half times the returnees during all of 2014.
Another measure undertaken by the government is to collect biometric information of all mobile phone users for a national database aimed at curbing terrorism. It is one of the world’s largest and fastest efforts to collect biometric information. All mobile phone users have been informed that if they do not verify their identities through fingerprints, their service will be deactivated.
According to the Pakistan Telecommunications Authority, there are at least 136 million cell phone subscribers in the country. However, the eventual efficacy of this move is questionable as terrorist groups are well versed in circumventing the government. Communication through satellite phones amongst militant organisations is not unheard of. Also, this move will make it easier to track people after an attack rather than prevent it. There are also concerns about privacy issues and the government tracking civilians.
Counter-terror training
Soon after the attack, Pakistan began to allow teachers to carry weapons into classrooms and even began training those who wished to do so. Students are also undergoing counter terrorist training to prepare them for attacks and to teach them to handle firearms, defuse explosives and provide emergency care. This approach of tackling violence with violence propagated by civilians complicates the problem further instead of providing a plausible solution.
Pakistan seems to have woken up to the problem of terrorism that is crippling its people but the strategies the country is adopting are aimed at dealing with the after effects of militant violence. Pakistan needs to weed out terrorism, root and stem, and for that it requires stricter and more urgent long term strategies. The first step that the government needs to take continues to be the most important – definitively breaking all ties with its terrorist proxies.
(The writer is a Research Assistant at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi)
Nepal: Need for India-China cooperation
Anasua Basu Ray Chaudhury
Nepal’s current electricity supply is not only insufficient and unreliable but also expensive. Despite having 83,000 megawatts (MW) of expected hydroelectric potential, about 42,000 MW of which is technically and economically viable and current annual hydropower output barely exceeds 700 MW — less than the demand of 1,400 MW.
Only approximately 50 percent of the population has access to electricity. Out of this, only five percent of the rural populace has access to electricity from the national grid. Even residents in the capital city of Kathmandu experience load shedding several times a day during the dry season. In 2011, peak power demand in Nepal reached 950 MW, and is projected to continue increasing by around 7.5 percent annually until 2020. These electricity shortages have led to a heavy reliance on biomass in rural Nepal, which has negative health and environmental impacts, particularly for women and children.
In this backdrop, the two neighbouring Asian giants, namely, India and China, are interested in developing energy projects to take advantage of the nation’s natural resources. Situated between these two regional powers who aspire to be global powers, Nepal also intends to capture the opportunities and become a centre of geopolitical competition between India and China.
India’s investment
Recently Nepal has given an Indian company permission to build a 900 megawatt hydropower plant. The main intension is to ease chronic energy shortages by opening up its rivers to its larger neighbour. The two countries have already signed an agreement for the $1.04 billion project, which provides Nepal with free electricity and India energy for its power-hungry economy.
The project, which will be built by Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam (SJVN) Limited, was originally cleared in 2008 but never implemented as Nepal demanded for greater benefits. Under the agreement SJVN will develop the plant on the Arun River in east of Nepal, and supply a fifth of generated electricity to Nepal for free. Nepal will earn $3.48 billion over 25 years in royalty, income and taxes from the plant, and will then take ownership of the project.
Indian firms are investing billions to develop Nepal’s hydropower potential, encouraged by an electricity trading pact signed between the two countries at the time of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit in Nepal. Indian firms are negotiating with the government for power plants that would produce a total of 8,250 MWs while Kathmandu estimates $7 billion would be invested in its hydropower industry over the next 5 years.
Both the countries have agreed to implement large-scale projects such as the 5,600-MW Pancheshwar Multipurpose Project on the Mahakali River and Karnali hydropower project. It is true that growing Indian investment in Nepal’s energy industry comes as New Delhi looks to raise its influence in its smaller neighbours, where China is increasingly active.
China’s involvement
Earlier last year, a report published in Xinhua claimed that China has emerged as the largest FDI investor in Nepal, reaching USD 174 million dollars out of which its investments in Nepal’s energy sector has reached up to INR 4.23 billion in 2013. However, a group of experts argue that most of the Chinese investments are done in the form of loans rather than grants which make the Nepalese more cautious of Chinese intentions towards their economy.
In reality the Nepalese government has given permission to construction of a US$1.8 billion worth of dam on West Seti river by China Three Gorges Corp (CTGI). It is expected that the project with installed capacity of 750 megawatt (MW) would help bring relief to some of the estimated 40 percent of Nepal’s 28 million people who do not yet have access to electricity and also would pave the way to create jobs and cut poverty by the end of 2019.
"This is precisely the type of project Nepal has needed for a long time," said Ratna Sansar Shrestha, one of the country’s leading energy experts. In his view, West Seti should serve as an ideal project to help realize Nepal’s long-term goal of raising farm productivity through irrigation, and through efficient and pollution-free energy to industries and surface transport systems. It has been decided that CTGI will invest 75 percent of the project, with the remaining 25 percent the responsibility of the government’s Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA).
It is to be noted in this context that the project had previously been given to Australia’s Snowy Mountain Engineering Corp (SMEC), which aimed to sell the bulk of electricity to India. However, SMEC could not mobilize adequate money even after 16 years of effort, and the Nepalese government scrapped the agreement last July and began negotiations with other interested parties.
The West Seti project involves construction of a 187 meter high and 445 meter long concrete dam to store regular river water and additional water received during the rainy season. About 16,000 villagers in the area need to be resettled.
Bridging the gaps
Chinese diplomats in Kathmandu have also consistently maintained that their country would not compete with India in Nepal. During his visit to Nepal Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that China, Nepal and India should boost cooperation and seek common development. The Chinese foreign minister made the remarks at a joint press conference with his Nepalese counterpart Mahendra Bahadur Pandey. Responding to a question from the media, Wang said both Nepal and India are China’s good friends and neighbours, and China hopes that Nepal, due to its unique location, can serve as a bridge between China and India as well as a bridge between China and South Asia. But Indian security experts and intelligence agencies often construct alarming scenarios. To the diplomats the presence of a prominent Chinese company in Nepal is a serious strategic challenge. However, competition can turn into cooperation in the case of Nepal as India under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi shows interest in neighbour first policy.
Modi, the first Indian prime minister to visit Nepal in 17 years, stressed the importance of the 4 C’s — cooperation, connectivity, culture and constitution — to enhance bilateral ties. India has a traditional advantage not only in the political and cultural areas but also monetarily, by retaining the top slot as the highest energy investor in Nepal.
Moreover, Modi has assured Nepal to assist in the construction of a multi-lane motorable bridge over Mahakali River at Mahendranagar, which will allow traffic along the East West Highway to cross over the Mahakali River and establish a vital trade and transit linkage of far western region of Nepal with Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi. The Indian side is also considering construction of motorable bridges at the border points at Jhulaghat and Darchula.
In this scenario, both India and China should come forward to develop Nepal by investing in hydro-electricity not as competitor but as collaborator. Probably, trilateral cooperation between India, China and Nepal is important for the interest of the region. Stable and prosperous Nepal can only serve the security concerns of both the Asian giants.
(The writer is a Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Kolkata)
Country Reports
Taliban okays peace talks
The Taliban this week gave the green signal to hold preliminary peace talks with the Afghan government. The decision was said to have been taken following consultations between senior Taliban leadership and Pakistani and Chinese officials. The group has reportedly finalised seven representatives to take part in the negotiations with the Afghan government.
The insurgent group also claimed that five prisoners recently released from Guantanamo Bay will also take part in this dialogue. The talks are expected to begin in March in Doha. Earlier, President Ghani had expressed optimism about the prospects of the talks claiming that Afghanistan was on the "right track" and that "the grounds for peace have never been better than they are today".
Afghanistan’s Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah also gave assurances that any peace deal with the Taliban would not compromise the rights of the Afghan people. However, the Taliban issued a statement claiming that all the rumours about the upcoming peace talks were mere assumptions of the various media outlets.
For more information see: "Taliban leadership approves preliminary peace talks with Afghan govt", Khaama Press, 22 February 2015; "Taliban Finalize Peace Negotiators: Akbar Agha", Tolo News, 24 February 2015; "Ghani Optimistic About New Taliban Peace Talks", Tolo News, 21 February 2015; "Abdullah Vows Taliban Talks Will Not Compromise the Rights of Afghans" , Tolo News, 23 February 2015
US ready for slowing withdrawal
US Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter visited Kabul this week and claimed that the US was open to the idea of slowing the pace of withdrawal from the country. He said that the Obama administration was considering a stronger military relationship with the new government in Kabul.
For more information see : "U.S. Open to Slowing Troop Pullout in Afghanistan", The New York Times, 21 February 2015
Avalanche kills 100
A deadly avalanche in Panjshir Valley this week resulted in the death of 100 people, 38 people wounded and about 13 people missing. Rescue operations were halted due to roads being blocked on account of heavy snowfall. As part of the rescue operations winter clothes and food has been distributed to the affected people.
For more information see : "Panjshir Avalanches Claim More than 100 Lives", , Tolo News, 25 February 2015
First World Cup victory
Afghanistan beat Scotland by one wicket with three balls remaining to claim its first ever victory in a World Cup tournament. After having restricted Scotland to 210, Afghanistan was reduced to 97 for 7. A 96 run knock from Samiullah Shenwari was able to rescue Afghanistan and he was also awarded with the Man of the Match award. Afghanistan lost its first two matches to Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.
For more information see : "Cricket World Cup: Afghanistan shock Scotland in final over", BBC News, 26 February 2015
Indian aid worker freed
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