US President Barak Obama's visit to Myanmar late last year has opened the political space in the country for discussing amendments to the nation's Constitution. A day after speaking to Obama on 30 October,
Analysis
US President Barak Obama’s visit to Myanmar late last year has opened the political space in the country for discussing amendments to the nation’s Constitution. A day after speaking to Obama on 30 October, President Thein Sein called a 14-party meeting to discuss the future of the country before the crucial 2015 elections. The President, Parliament, military and political parties, including the Opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Suu Kyi, attended the meeting. Not much was achieved during the meeting, with many calling it a political stunt and the government caught with a surprise.
Following the quadric-partite talks, two separate proposals for talks remain before the President’s office. The first proposal for six-party talks between the President, Speakers of both Houses of Parliament, the Army chief, the Leader of Opposition and a representative of ethnic minorities was approved by the joint session of Parliament on 25 November.
In a more recent development, Yangnon Parliament adopted a resolution on 12-party talks that would comprise seven ethnic minority groups besides the national leaders. This is the second such formation by a regional parliament for discussing constitutional amendments.
Government’s reluctance
The 30 October dialogue, though not called to deliberate on constitutional amendments, underlined the need for a political dialogue among all the stake-holders for determining the future of the country. Parliaments, both Union and regional Houses, have upheld this view.
But the President’s office and the military have shown an insulated response on the Parliament resolutions for talks. Spokesperson of the President’s office has accepted difference of approach between the incumbents on one side and the Union Parliament and Opposition on the other.
Presidential spokesperson Ye Htut has said that the President was keen on the organisational part while Parliament is interested in the character. Even the military’s attitude is similar of that of the government. The military and the government are keen on engaging ethnic groups for talks, it appears.
The reluctance of the politico-military block to hold talks on constitutional amendments before the 2015 elections seems to be a reason for the deadlock. Challenging the position are Lower House Speaker Thura Shwe Mann and opposition leader, Suu Kyi.
Shwe Mann has back-tracked from his earlier position of discussing constitutional amendments six months in advance of the 2015 presidential elections. He now has changed his position and has said that amendments to the Constitution could be made after the crucial 2015 elections. Shwe Mann’s unclear position has released the pressure on the government.
Shwe Mann’s new position could be understood only against his aspirations for running in the presidential elections. The NLD has however upped the ante for amending what it considers controversial sections of the Constitution.
Amending two Articles of the 2008 Constitution remain high on the agenda of Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy. This includes amendment to Article 436, which requires the vote of more than 75 percent of the Upper House for amending the Constitution, giving the military-nominated members comprising 25 percent of the Parliament’s strength and thus the leverage to veto amendments.
The other Article 59 (f) disallows a person spouse is a foreign national from running for the nation’s presidency. In October, the NLD’s proposal for amending Article 436 was put down by the military and USDP law-makers in Parliament, indicating the lack on USDP’s clarity on the charter reforms. As may be recalled Suu Kyi’s husband is of foreign origin, and under the present Constitution, she could be banned from contesting the presidential polls.
Future of talks
The future of political dialogue over amending the Constitution has already hit a rough patch. Suu Kyi has made her anxiety over talks, clear. She has favoured the four-party talks format over six or 12-party talks, but has held the issue urgent. The proposal of the ruling USDP is for bringing in a crucial third dimension to the discussion table- the ethnic minorities.
The Thein Sein government would have to come clean on their position on holding discussions on the amendments to the constitution unless they are hell-bent on defending the privileges of the Junta in 2008 constitution of Myanmar.
The log-jam over talks for amending the Constitution would continue unless the incumbent agrees to create an environment of trust among various political groups in the country before the crucial elections to be held in October or November’s next year. The USDP has also to articulate its position on holding of talks. Ethnic minorities and their joining the talks is very tentative, the proposal forwarded by the Union Parliament has named an Arakan National Party leader as the representative for ethnic minorities for the talks. This was not received well by many ethnic minority communities.
Suu Kyi has consistently raised doubts over the nature of reforms in Myanmar. The role of U.S. here is very important in pushing the Thein Sein government to hold talks for discussing amendments to the constitution, at a time when U.S. is already cautioned against back-sliding of reforms in Myanmar.
4-party, 6-Party or 12-party, the talks have to be representative of all groups in Myanmar and must cover all aspects of constitutional amendments proposed by the constitutional committee for Myanmar aspires to tread a path of democracy.
(The writer is a Research Assistant, Observer Research Foundation, Kolkata).
Nepal: Speed-breakers in India relations?
Anasua Basu Ray Chaudhury
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi came again in the forefront in the Nepali media. The country’s leading dailies raised a debate on whether Modi had interfered in Nepal’s internal matters while pointing out the perils of delay in writing the new Constitution. It was against the backdrop of Modi’s speech at the inauguration ceremony of Trauma Centre for Bir Hospital in Kathmandu before the 18th South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) summit took place during November 26-27, 2014. But before going into the debate, it is interesting to have a quick look into Nepal’s self projection in organising the two-day long summit.
The 18th SAARC summit was hugely successful both in terms of management and documentation, claimed the Foreign Minister of Nepal Mahendra Bahadur Pandey. Nepal has fruitfully demonstrated its diplomacy in multilateral forums like BIMSTEC and SAARC, the Foreign Minister said, adding that the country also efficiently established its leadership. The summit provided a good platform for the regional leaders to mingle and understand each other raising high hopes for the South Asian states in various ways and means to enhance intra-regional trade, investment, connectivity and economic cooperation; fighting terrorism and other forms of social menaces, increasing agricultural productivity, alleviating poverty, promoting quality education, providing better health services and promoting culture in the South Asian region.
It is worth-mentioning in this context that during the Summit, SAARC Framework Agreement on Energy Cooperation (Electricity) was signed. The Leaders of the eight South Asian states directed their Ministers to hold a meeting within three months to finalise the SAARC Motor Vehicles Agreement for the Regulation of Passenger and Cargo Vehicular Traffic and SAARC Regional Agreement on Railways considering regional connectivity as one of the most crucial aspect of trans-border cooperation in globalised world. All these raised high expectations in cooperation among the member states of this region.
At the end of the two-day SAARC summit, a ’Kathmandu Declaration’ with a theme of Deeper Integration for Peace and Prosperity, was adopted, which said the leaders recognised that after nearly 30 years of its existence, it is time to "reinvigorate" SAARC’s regional cooperation and "revitalise" the bloc as an effective vehicle to fulfil the developmental aspirations of the people. India. The Foreign Minister (FM) of Nepal showed his satisfaction as all member states of SAARC appreciated the theme of the summit chosen by Nepal. "At a time when we have yet to institutionalise republicanism as political transition continues, successfully organizing the summit has proven Nepal’s ability," he argued.
In the backdrop of hasty infrastructure construction and fast-track tender process in organising the SAARC Summit, Prime Minister (PM) of Nepal Sushil Koirala urged the ministers and officials concerned to release the details of expenditures incurred during the regional meeting. The Good Governance Committee of Parliament summoned Chief Secretary Leela Mani Paudyal and other senior officials in mid-November to express concerns about the hasty preparations and tenders for city beautification and other logistical preparations. The Finance Ministry is yet to make public the total cost of hosting the summit. Stating that the 18th SAARC Summit had boosted Nepal’s image in the international arena, the PM thanked all the visiting dignitaries and officials, and his colleagues, ministers, security personnel and media for the success.
Did Modi breach diplomatic norms?
At the inauguration ceremony of the Trauma Centre for Bir Hospital in Kathmandu, Narendra Modi pointed to the risk of delay in writing the new Constitution for Nepal and urged political parties to write the statute by consensus. He warned about the risks involved in deciding the statute through numerical strength in the Constituent Assembly (CA). It is to be noted that the Opposition parties, which were defeated in the November elections for the CA, have been insisting on the "consensus-only" approach despite agreeing in March this year, to go for voting if consensus failed.
Modi’s advice to Nepal’s warring political parties on the Constitution-making process was criticised by the media in the country, which termed it as a "breach of diplomatic norms". "Indian PM breached diplomatic Lakshman rekha (norms)," the Kantipur wrote in its editorial. Another daily, the Nagarik, also accused Modi of practicing "new diplomacy" with his remarks. The newspaper noted that the Indian Prime Minister had demonstrated respect and goodwill during his August bilateral visit and desisted from displaying "big brother" attitude. "But he was apparently under intense pressure this time to correct that approach and hence resorted to the old policy."
Both newspapers also objected to the Indian PM’s warning about the risks of finalising Constitution through majority. The Annapurna Post, another national daily, noted that the Indian PM should have refrained from appearing to side with one political faction in Nepal while the Kantipur laid the blame on Nepali political leaders’ failure and dependence on outside powers for this interference. However, Kantipur’s sister-publication, The Kathmandu Post, took the suggestion positively in a brief mention in an editorial devoted to SAARC Summit. "It was well-intended advice," the newspaper wrote.
The Constitution could be passed with agreed contents and the amendments if required, Modi suggested. The UCPN (Maoist) and Madhes-based parties welcomed Modi’s suggestion on consensus approach though they thought the way Modi tried to dictate his view was not proper. It smacked of interference, they said. On the other hand, the Nepali Foreign Minister Mahendra Bahadur Pandey argued that "it was a friendly advice of India… we should not take it as interference,"
Another hiccup?
The proposed plan of Modi to address the public in Janakpur and Lumbini during his visit in the course of attending the 18th SAARC Summit raised controversy in Nepal. A section of the political parties and civil society openly criticised Modi’s plan. The security agencies were cautious about arrangements during his participation in public functions. Modi had been scheduled to visit Janakpur, the birthplace of Sita in the Ramayan and Lumbini, the birthplace of Lord Buddha, and another Hindu pilgrimage site, Muktinath, located in the southern mountainous region.
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