Nepal: Prime Minister Oli off to China
Anasua Basu Ray Chaudhury
Prime Minister K. P. Sharma Oli on Sunday left for his week-long official visit to China. He is accompanied by a 50-member delegation. He has gone to Beijing at at the invitation of his Chinese counterpart Li Keqiang.
At least six memorandums of understanding (MoUs) are likely to be signed with China during Oli’s visit to the northern neighbour. According to Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs Kamal Thapa, MoUs related to trade, transit and investment will be signed during the visit. Thapa said, “We will seek Chinese assistance in various infrastructure-related projects during the meeting with the Chinese leadership in Beijing”.
In addition, transit and transportation MOUs on importing fuel from China and agreements on bilateral trademark registration and protection, free trade and opening of a branch of a Chinese bank and Nepal’s new consulate general office in Chengdu of Sichuan Province are also expected to be signed during PM Oli’s visit.
Return via Tibet
While in Beijing, PM Oli will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping, Premier Li and Vice-President Li Yenchon on March 21. After his official visit to Beijing, he will leave for Hainan Province of China on March 22 to participate in the annual conference of the Boao Forum for Asia. He will also address the gathering.
Meetings with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and other senior Chinese government officials and party leaders of the Communist Party of China (CPC) are on the card. OLi will return home via Tibet on March 24. On the other hand, the Foreign Ministry has officially announced the visit of Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs Kamal Thapa to China. In Beijing, Thapa will meet his Chinese counterpart Yang Yi and senior Chinese political leaders and officials.
Trade & transit
Nepal is finalising the documents to sign a trade and transit treaty with China, similar to the one that exists with India. According to media reports, a proposal has already been forwarded to China for approval. If China agrees, Nepal will have access to Chinese sea ports for export and import to a third country, especially to import petroleum products through government to government (G2G) and business to business (B2B) deals to pave the way for private players to import fuel from the northern neighbour.
The nearest Chinese port from Nepal is Shanghai. If the two neighbours sign the pact, Nepal’s dependency on India for trade with the rest of the world will decline. Nepal is keen to improve its connectivity with China and the idea behind the trade and transit pact is to diversify Nepal’s trade. Nepal will also seek Free Trade Agreement with China during Thapa’s visit.
Top priority will be attached to duty free access for Nepali exports to China. Presently, China has granted duty-free access to 8,800 Nepali items, but many of them are not exportable to the north. Nepal seeks concessional treatment for exportable items, rather than the big numbers.
On connectivity, Nepal’s priority is to open at least four border points namely- Kerung, Tatopani, Korala and Kimathanka. Though these four passes have an immediate prospect of opening for border trade there are other five points which will be considered gradually.
On connectivity, Nepal’s priority is to open at least four border points namely- Kerung, Tatopani, Korala and Kimathanka. Though these four passes have an immediate prospect of opening for border trade there are other five points which will be considered gradually.
During the prime minister’s visit, Nepal and China will sign an agreement for Rs. 13 billon pledged by the Chinese President during the Boao Forum in his meeting with former President Ram Baran Yadav. A big chunk of the aid will be spent on widening the Kodari Highway that connects Kathmandu with the Chinese border.
Quake disruption
Following the April earthquake, Nepal’s trade with China via Tatopani in Sindhupalchok has been disrupted. As an alternative, the Rasuwagadhi border point with China has been opened but the road is difficult for big cargo vehicles to pass. It is to be noted here that Nepal accessed 1.3 million litre fuel granted by China via Kerung after India imposed an unofficial border blockade citing unrest in the Tarai.
The Nepali side is also planning to seek Chinese assistance for the construction of at least three petroleum depots in Pachkhal (Kavre), Battar (Nuwakot) and Khairani (Tanahun). Other items on the agenda include seeking Chinese grant and soft loan for developing reservoir-type Budhi Gandaki (12,00 MW), Kimathanka-Arun (400 MW) and Sunkoshi Third (585 MW) hydropower projects. Similarly, expediting loan agreement for construction of regional airport in Pokhara, opening up more trade routes, establishing one Nepali cultural centre in Beijing), up-gradation, expansion of Kodari Highway and Kathmandu-Kerung highway, construction of a bridge over the Simikot-Hilsa road section that will connect Humla district to Tibet, feasibility study of Kathmandu-Pokhara rail service and studying feasibility of mono rail in Kathmandu are also high on the agenda.
Updates for India
While the country has been charged up with Prime Minister Oli’s forthcoming China visit, Indian and Nepali leaders and officials have met to hold more talks on the sidelines of the 37th Ministerial Meeting of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) held at Pokhara on March 17. Nepal’s Ambassador to India Deep Kumar Upadhyay said that a significant bilateral meeting has been scheduled between Sushma Swaraj, Minister of External Affairs, India and Oli in view of the latter’s visit to Beijing.
“The visit to China is the second foreign trip of Prime Minister Oli and we expect the trip to be historic in nature, and that is why Mr. Oli will give a preview of the trip during his discussions with Ms. Swaraj”, Upadhyay said. Officials say China is keen to maintain a balanced relationship between her two giant neighbours in her present situation of political transition. One can cite Prime Minister Oli’s statement in this context. Oli during his six-day state visit to India made a strong pitch in New Delhi for a results-oriented partnership with both India and China, Nepal’s immediate neighbours.
The prime minister also said that Nepal had no intention of playing the India or China card. “We at times hear from certain quarters that Nepal uses that or this ‘card’ vis-à-vis its relations with neighbours. Such perceptions have no basis. There is no question of aligning with one or the other. We can’t do it and for us it is not a viable policy option either,” Oli said.
“As a neighbour, we have and will continue to have good relations with both based on their own merits and one is not comparable to the other. What we see rather is India and China coming together–be it in ever expanding bilateral trade or in multilateral negotiations on critical global issues like climate change,” he said.
Briefing the parliamentary International Relations and Labour Committee on his trip to China, PM Oli reiterated the same commitment to maintaining balanced relations with both of Nepal’s immediate neighbours-India and China, with focus on the country’s socio-economic development.
Before embarking on a week-long official visit of China, Oli has confirmed that he would make efforts to seek the landlocked country’s access to the sea through “all available routes”. In India, the Prime Minister signed an agreement for using the Visakhapatnam port for Nepal’s international trade.
(The writer is a Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Kolkata).
Myanmar: Suu Kyi chooses U Htin Kyaw for nation’s President
Mihir Bhonsale
NLD nominee U Htin Kyaw has become Myanmar’s first civilian President since 1962. The combined houses of the parliament elected U Htin Kyaw as the President of the Union of Myanmar on March 15. He is likely to take charge of the responsibility on April 30. Htin Kyaw was nominated by the NLD in the lower house on March 10.
Henry Von Thio, who was also nominated by the party in the lower house, has gone on to bag one of the two vice-presidents. The military bloc in the parliament selected and forwarded the name of the Rangoon chief minister, U Myint Swe, who became the second vice-president.
In fact, U Htin Kyaw’s election had remained a mere formality after the trust National League for Democracy (NLD) leader Aung San Suu Kyi showed in him, by picking him as her party’s nominee for the country’s presidentship. The election has ended the long wait over the ruling party’s presidential nominee after the NLD won the November 8 general elections, cornering more than 80 percent of the seats in the parliament.
Trusted aide
NLD supremo Suu Kyi chose trust as the defining characteristic for her party’s presidential nominee. She told her party MPs that Htin Kyaw was picked by her for his loyalty, his discipline and his educational background, which would benefit him as the leader of the country.
Htin Kyaw, a friend and long-time collaborator of the democracy icon, stood beside her during the testing times, especially when Suu Kyi was under the house arrest. He even did not mind driving Suu Kyi around. Htin Kyaw had resigned from the government service to join the NLD and was arrested for four months in 2000 for assisting Suu Kyi to travel outside Yangon.
Htin Kyaw was educated in Myanmar and the UK. He studied economics, statistics and computer science. He also has a degree in management from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in the US. He writes under the pen name Dala Ban, a Mon warrior and has a biographical book on his father to his credit.
He became the executive committee member of Daw Khin Kyi Foundation, run by Aung San Suu Kyi. Htin Kyaw comes from a family of NLD loyalists. His father, Min Thu Wun, a well-known writer, poet and scholar, had won the MP seat in the 1990 elections. Htin Kyaw is married to Su Su Lwin, a lower house NLD Member of Parliament.
Suu Kyi’s role
After her party’s resounding win in October last year, Suu Kyi had indicated that she would assign a role for herself that is “above the president”. Speculation was rife about Suu Kyi pushing for the suspension of Article 59(f) of the Constitution that debars her from becoming President and thus make way for her to occupy the nation’s highest elected office.
The election of Htin Kyaw now has thus pushed aside all the speculations. Instead, his election may have affirmed Suu Kyi’s well-known statement of her standing “above the president”.
Whether Suu Kyi would join the government or keep managing the country’s affairs by continuing to be the party’s chair remains to be seen. The world will know what role Suu Kyi would assume for herself will be known only after Htin Kyaw assumes the presidency.
Observers say Suu Kyi might be eyeing the foreign ministry portfolio, by means of which she could formally represent Myanmar on international forums. By taking up this portfolio, she would be part of the high-power defence and security committee that has six seats reserved out of the total of eleven members.
However, becoming a member of the cabinet will require her to relinquish her post as the party supremo, a risky proposition that she is likely to forego. It can be said that whatever role she assumes, the highly centralised power structure in the country is split into two, to accommodate Suu Kyi.
Than Shwe’s influence
The nomination of U Myint Shwe as the vice-president by the military has once again indicated the continuing influence of senior general Than Shwe. He was the Chairman of the erstwhile State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) that was dissolved in 2007. Myint Shwe is said to be close to him.
Myint Shwe was the former head of special operations in Yangon and is remembered for his infamous role in the crackdown on democracy protestors in 2007, better known as the ‘Saffron Revolution’.
Suu Kyi, after her victory in the 8 November elections last year, had met Than Shwe and discussed transfer of power. The SPDC chairman had praised Suu Kyi’s abilities and had promised his cooperation. Suu Kyi’s meeting with Than Shwe and the bringing back of Myint Shwe, who was on the verge of being phased out from the corridors of power, has fuelled speculations on an understanding between Suu Kyi and the senior general.
Than Shwe’s successor in the military, Min Aung Hlaing, has got himself a second term and he would steer the parliament through his nominees on key issues like the constitutional amendments and peace process. Suu Kyi would hope to have a constant dialogue with the military.
(The writer is a Research Assistant at Observer Research Foundation, Kolkata)
Country Reports
Afghanistan
Hezb-e-Islami for talks
In a statement released on 13 March, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, the leader of the insurgent group Hezb-e-Islami, said he and his group would join peace talks with the Afghan government “to show Afghans we want peace”. Hekmatyar, designated a “global terrorist” by the U.S. Department of State and blacklisted by the UN, and Hezb-e-Islami have aligned with the Taliban in the past and have previously attacked government targets.
For more information, see: “Veteran Afghan insurgent leader says he will join peace talks”, The Washington Post, 13 March 2016
Fifth district falls to Taliban
On 15 March, Khan Neshin became the fifth district in the embattled Helmand province to fall under the control of the Taliban. A firefight between Taliban militants and Afghan security forces personnel broke out on 14 March night and continued into 15 March. The fall of Khan Neshin comes in the immediate aftermath of the fall of Musa Qala and Now Zad districts on 21 February.
For more information, see: “Taliban fighters seize Afghan territory as NATO chief visits Kabul”, The Washington Post, 15 March 2016
US men to be punished
More than a dozen U.S. military personnel face punishment for their role in the bombing of a’ Doctors Without Borders’ hospital in Kunduz that killed 42 people last year. The punishments, which have not been publicly announced, are administrative — not criminal — with a few being severe enough to end chances of promotion.
For more information, see: “More than 12 punished for mistaken hospital attack in Afghanistan”, Associated Press, 17 March 2016
ISIS on the run: Ghani
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