The euphoria of the new leadership in Sri Lanka towards the northern Indian neighbour may have set the right tone and tenor for further betterment of bilateral relations as in regional and international contexts.
Analysis
The euphoria of the new leadership in Sri Lanka towards the northern Indian neighbour may have set the right tone and tenor for further betterment of bilateral relations as in regional and international contexts. The relationship had slackened, and strained up to a point, particularly in the last year of President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s 10-year regime and for specific reasons. The Indian media did not give enough space for the maiden overseas visit of Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera for most part, but that should not belittle the hosts’ new-found enthusiasm in engaging with Sri Lanka as a nation, government and peoples.
That the wide-ranging talks between Samaraweera and Indian counterpart Sushma Swaraj extended over three hours should speak volumes not only for the commonality of approaches but also the complexities of the issues involved, at some stage. There were serious Indian concerns on the China (submarine-berthing) and Pakistan (ISI basing cross-border terrorism out of Sri Lanka), which the previous government in Colombo seemed to have over-looked but the present one could address squarely, in its own larger national interests.
There are other issues on which both nations need to work with and on others, including existing and emerging stake-holders. Some of them are present, particularly on the Indian side by sheer default and neglect, and they – and their concerns — need to be addressed too – and nearer home. There are yet others, where the solution lies elsewhere, either closer home in Sri Lanka or in faraway global capitals and institutions, starting with the UNHRC in Geneva. These are solutions that could address the Indian concerns and silence criticism from within, particularly southern Tamil Nadu State.
The Narendra Modi government in India inheriting all the pluses and minuses of the Sri Lanka relations from predecessor Manmohan Singh dispensation, yet could not do much about it, particularly in view of the successive speculation and reality of fresh presidential polls in Sri Lanka. The Sri Lankan presidential polls that followed in double-quick time and the change of leadership in that country meant that the two nations can now start off on a clean slate, so to say. The Samaraweera visit has thus laid the foundation for the two governments to move forward, on specific issues and very specifically.
Tamils in key positions
As was hoped for and promised, the Sri Lankan government of President Maithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe have begun well on the home front, particularly on the vexatious ethnic issue. It refuses to die down, despite the exit of LTTE terror, war and violence full five years back. The new government’s decision on the double-quick appointment of a civilian governor in the Northern Province is their commitment to the cause. H M G S Palihakkara, as the Northern Province Governor, brings to the task, his vast and varied diplomatic and negotiating experience as a former Foreign Secretary of the nation.
Palihakkara’s appointment has since been followed coincidentally by the appointment of Justice K Sripavan, only the second Tamil Chief Justice of Sri Lanka, have all augured well. Justice Sripavan as the second senior-most Judge after controversial Chief Justice Mohan Peiris — who was replaced just for a day by predecessor, Shirani Bandanayake, whose ’impeachment’ under predecessor President Rajapaksa — was the one who administered the oath of office to President Sirisena. A Tamil, K C Logeswaran, is also now the Governor of the Western Province, of which the capital city of Colombo is a part – and another, Arjuna Maheswaran, that of the all-important Central Bank.
Having contributed hugely to President Sirisena’s election, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), heading the elected Northern Province administration since late 2013, is meaningfully awaiting the conclusion of the parliamentary polls, promised to be called by 23 April, at the end of the new government’s 100 days in office. In the presidential polls, the TNA could mobilise the Tamil voters on the single promise of President Rajapaksa’s exit. They may contest the parliamentary polls on their own, and the TNA might flag their electoral concerns/views over military presence and UNHCR probe, and political concerns on power-devolution "within a united Sri Lanka".
India had urged President Rajapaksa to implement the 13th Amendment to the Sri Lankan Constitution on power-devolution in letter and spirit. Then Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi had facilitated it in 1987. President Rajapaksa volunteered 13-Plus, but did not move beyond the promise – or, so was it seen. The TNA too wanted 13-Plus, but of a different description. Though substantive progress was said to have been made on specifics, the talks got stalled, and aborted after a time, particularly when the nation’s collective and differential energies were dissipated in the UNHRC probe-related global politics.
Months before the January 8 presidential polls, later-day Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe would declare that his United National Party (UNP) was not for going beyond 13-A. As Prime Minister later, he has said that finding a solution would not be difficult and there were already five government-commissioned reports (involving politicians as its members) over the decades that could provide answers to the TNA’s demands. The TNA had proposed the same to the previous government, but to no avail.
Be it as it may, a lot on the passage of constitutional amendments required for the purpose would depend on the composition of the post-poll parliament and the acceptance of such proposals by individual parties – and at times individual MPs and groups belonging to larger parties. How the TNA faces up to the emerging situation, and also faces off the traditional ’separatist groups’ within the Sri Lankan Tamil Diaspora, who have not given up after losing the presidential poll game to the TNA on the ’boycott issue’, too remains to be seen. Where India could fit in, and how, is equally unclear just now.
’Accountability issues’
There is the related linkage to the ’accountability issues’ over ’allegations of war crimes’, where a UNHRC probe, ordered at the instance of the US and the rest, needs to be taken to its logical or illogical conclusion, if progress had to be made on a permanent political solution to the ethnic issue. The new government in Colombo cannot be seen, particularly by Sinhala-Buddhist constituencies – hardliners or not – and also by the TNA as wanting to hunt with the hound and run with the hare.
Prima facie, it’s for the new government in Sri Lanka to negotiate with the US and other prime-movers behind the UNHRC resolutions in the past three years. Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, with his vast and varied experience in the job on two earlier occasions and his known proclivity towards the West and its ’liberal’ models, has said that his government would not allow ’external probes’ into ’accountability issues’ but at the same time would not shy away from engaging the international community, unlike the predecessor Rajapaksa regime.
The new rulers in Colombo have indicated that the previous government could have handled the situation better and engaged the international community and the UNHRC, as well. Present-day President Sirisena, during poll campaigns, had offered/promised to defend the Rajapaksa family – and the 200,000- strong armed forces — on ’accountability issues’. Dr Jayantha Dhanapala, a high-ranking former UN diplomat and at present Presidential Advisor, post-poll, has since concluded a series of ’exploratory meetings’ in Geneva, ahead of the bi-annual March session of the UNHRC.
India should be keenly watching the developments on this score. Having voted with the US on the UNHRC resolution twice, in 2012 and 2013, India boycotted the 2014 vote on principles, when the US draft threw its ’sovereignty’ concerns to winds and called for an ’international probe’. The US carried the vote at the time, but it’s unclear just now if either the US or its supporters from the previous three years would want to do it again without giving new government in Colombo enough time to take stock and return.
How President Sirisena keeps up the promise, and how Prime Minister Wickemesinghe ensures that there is no one-sided global inquiry, which overlooks the LTTE’s war-crimes of decades and fails to fix ’political responsibility’ in one case even while doing so in the case of the other, can have serious repercussions. The ruling Tamil National Alliance (TNA), ruling the Northern Province, is divided on this issue as on the larger political negotiations, with one section saying that they would not be satisfied with anything less than an international probe – thus also reflecting the views of a vociferous, ’separatist’ section of the Sri Lankan Tamil Diaspora.
India, under such circumstances, could be seriously impeded in taking forward its expectations of an earlier political settlement to the ethnic issue – which could encourage a free flow of war-time Sri Lankan Tamil refugees, now staying in India (and elsewhere, too. In all this India may have greater influence on the Sri Lankan Government than on the TNA, which needs to demonstrate its ’independence’ from ’Diaspora separatists’ more than eclipsing the latter’s ’boycott call’ for the presidential poll.
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