Myanmar: Trade with India rising; much more needs to be done

• MIHIR BHONSALE

Myanmar's bilateral engagement with India in trade has gained momentum since 2008 when political and economic reforms were launched in the former 'pariah' state. India-Myanmar trade has more than doubled in the last seven years and has crossed $2 billion in 2013-14,

Analysis

Myanmar’s bilateral engagement with India in trade has gained momentum since 2008 when political and economic reforms were launched in the former ’pariah’ state. India-Myanmar trade has more than doubled in the last seven years and has crossed $2 billion in 2013-14, but much remains to be done, as India is Myanmar’s distant 11th trade partner.

The 5th India-Myanmar Joint Trade Committee meeting held on 17 February in Myanmar’s capital city aimed at intensifying economic cooperation between the two countries. The meeting was co-chaired by Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry, Nirmala Sitharaman, who announced that bilateral trade will reach $10 billion in next five years and Indian investments in Myanmar would cross $2 billion mark.

In order to achieve this trade target, two routes — maritime and border trade — assume significance. Ever since India launched its Look East Policy, Myanmar’s importance as a strategic and economic partner has been important and trade and connectivity projects were initiated with an objective of achieving regional prosperity.

Border trade

Myanmar is India’s land-bridge to South-East Asia. Sharing a 1,700-km border, the immense potential of border trade potential between was rightly identified by the Look East Policy. However, the only operational border trading post has been the Moreh-Tamu post, off the border in Manipur state in India.

Trade between India and Myanmar through the border trade points of Moreh and Zokhawthar in 2012-13 was only $ 6.5 million. However, the informal trade that takes place across the border is several times higher. Large unregulated informal trade, fraught with security, health and safety risks have remained as challenges to border trade.

Myanmar exports 25 percent and imports 15 percent of its total trade through the border from India. Border trade with India comprises of only 1 percent of Myanmar’s total border trade. India accounts for a sizeable share in Myanmar’s imports of pharmaceutical products (37 percent), essential oil, perfumes, and cosmetics (6.6 percent), rubber and articles (6.2 percent), articles of iron or steel (5.6 percent), cotton (5.6 percent), and iron and steel (5.5 percent).

The Indian commerce and industry minister during her visit to Manipur earlier this year had said that her government is keen on trade and plantation projects in the region as part of the Special Economic Zone in the state. Sitharaman in the bilateral meeting in Nay Pyi Taw underlined the need for improving border trade by offering Myanmar, banking arrangements suited for border trade.

Maritime trade

Trade through sea is another way of intensifying economic cooperation between the two countries. Rightly, discussed in the Joint Trade Committee Meeting was India’s assistance for subsidized direct shipping links to Myanmar. Potential of maritime trade with Myanmar cannot be overlooked since South-East Asian economies- Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia, have become important trade destinations.

The Kaladan Multimodal Transport Project (KMMTP) that connects Kolkata port with Sittwe port presents such an opportunity. Also important would be the Chennai port for sea links with ports of Yangon and Dawei, the latter is being developed by Thai companies into a Special Economic Zone. Hence, it is no coincidence that the next round of Indo-Myanmar Joint Trade Committee Meeting scheduled to take place in Chennai.

Maritime trade, however bypasses the North-Eastern region of India, and development of this region has been an imperative of the Look East Policy, hence skepticism exists for over-reliance on maritime trade to boost economic cooperation between the two countries. Undoubtedly, maritime trade is high in returns and presents lower security risks compared to border trade.

Indian investments

India is 12th on the list of investors in Myanmar with a cumulative investment of US $ 1.89 billion from 1989 to 2012. Foreign direct investment in Myanmar hit US$6 billion in the first 9 months of the current fiscal year 2014-15.

India’s engineering sector is eyeing the Myanmar market to create a bigger presence for engineering exports, and oil and gas companies ONGC Videsh and GAIL are aggressively scouting for more exploratory blocks in Myanmar. Infrastructure development is another area where India is engaging with Myanmar and is expected to continue to do so.

The new Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) law in Myanmar allows 100 percent FDI in textiles, 80 percent in food and beverages and production and distribution of fruits and vegetables. These two sectors in which India can intensify investment, especially for food and beverages production the thinly populated North-East states could be ideal, because of the ready availability of land.

The opportunity that Myanmar presents for Indian companies is immense, but without identifying the sectors for increased engagement, the efforts would be in vain. This must be the logic behind Sitharaman’s invitation to the Union of Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry to India in April for showcasing Myanmar’s economy to attract Indian investments.

(The writer is a Research Assistant at Observer Research Foundation, Kolkata)

Sri Lanka: TN position and NPC resolution can delay refugees’ return

N Sathiya Moorthy

Independent of the enthusiasm shown by the Governments of India and Sri Lanka for the early return of the over 100,000 Tamil refugees in southern Tamil Nadu to their homeland across the Palk Strait, there could be delays of the unexpected kind. The position taken by the host Tamil Nadu Government and the ’genocide’ resolution passed by the Tamils-exclusive Northern Provincial Council (NPC) recently has the potential to discourage expectant returnees to have a re-think.

Any refugee returnee issue of the kind is fraught with inherent political, social and administrative problems, both fathomable and otherwise. Considering that the Tamil refugees from Sri Lanka have spent a substantial part of their growing-up years in Tamil Nadu, they will have inherent apprehensions in re-locating to a land that they almost/utmost unfamiliar and at times uncomfortable with.

For starters, the refugees will require assurances on rehabilitation, for them to be able to start their off their from where they had left in the host-State, despite all the other inconveniences, even if not from where they had left it before the ’ethnic war’ intervened and destroyed much of what they have had. Given the long and numerous stories of inevitable unemployment and joblessness flowing from across the Strait, they would also be concerned about family incomes, to feed themselves all and for providing education and healthcare for their children and the needy, respectively.

The youth among them, who may have been born and/or married while in the Indian camps, may not know the Sri Lanka of their earlier generation and might even feel like ’outsiders’. Some may be disturbed by a feeling of ’guilt’, and others too apprehensive about possible taunting by their brethren back home. The central theme in this case would that be that they had settled safely in a secure environs far away from the war-zones, leaving the rest to fight and die in the war that was not exclusively theirs. Yet, their incessant yearning to return home cannot be wished away, either.

Even in the best of times, the Sri Lankan State and the Sinhala-Buddhist nationalist polity in the island-nation would have apprehensions about the wholesale return of the Tamil refugees from India in particular, and those from across the world, otherwise. Apart from the 100,000-plus refugees in India, a guesstimated 200,000 of them, mainly those whose applications for asylum may be, or may have been, rejected are said to be spread across the western world.

The mid-year report of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) for 2014 puts the number of ’people of concern’ from Sri Lanka at 181,645. Official More than a third of this figure comprises refugees in Indian camps, going by domestic Government figures. Incidentally, another 35,000 or so Tamil refugees from Sri Lanka live outside the camp in India, either on their own, or with relatives and friends.

No throwing out

India is not a signatory to the UN refugee convention. Nor does it have a refugee law, on the lines proposed. Yet, to refugees from across all borders abutting the country, India has been doing more than what is internationally expected or prescribed. It’s both acknowledged and appreciated, both by the individuals concerned and the international community.

There is no culture, politics or functional legal framework for India to either throw them all out, or not accept them, or hold them hostage in the mid-seas or land-borders, as has been the case with many countries that are signatories to the UN convention and pride themselves to be having a prescription law for the protection of refugees. Indian and Indians do not know to ask their ’guests’ – however intrusive and destructive – to get out. Nor do they know the why and how of throwing them out.

Even without refugees, Indian immigration laws are lax in formulation and lazy in enforcement. Of course, unlike many other countries, particularly in the western hemisphere, India does not make politics out of granting ’political-asylum’ to every other person demanding it at one stage, and denying them the same when it may have become uncomfortable nearer home. It’s choosy and conservative in granting ’political asylum’, if at all. The last big name to be granted political asylum in India was the Dalai Lama. That was decades ago.

It’s thus that local political groups have often suggested/demanded that willing refugees be granted Indian citizenship without second thoughts – though the politics and processes of it may be more complex than elsewhere, too. In the case of Sri Lanka’s Tamil refugees, the DMK party in Tamil Nadu had suggested the same, but the response of the refugees themselves was muted, if not discouraging.

Help & concerns

Despite ignorance and impressions to the contrary, Sri Lankan Government agencies, particularly those in south India, have been doing a commendable job, to make things as comfortable as possible for the refugees. However, their efforts have often been stymied by pan-Tamil protestors in the State, who manhandled Sri Lankan officials, operating out of Tamil Nadu Government offices in the district headquarters, with police protection.

A few years ago, the Sri Lankan Deputy High Commission (DHC) in Chennai commenced a process of registering births and deaths in the camps, at respective district headquarters on a cyclic basis, to facilitate the new-born to attain Sri Lankan citizenship, passport and other identification papers as applicable in alien environs. Even without this, the DHC at Chennai often wears a festive look as Sri Lankan refugees from within the country and outside – so also Diaspora members – celebrate their marriages, and/or have them registered there.

In coordination with OfERR, a Sri Lankan refugee-relief organisation and the cooperation of the Tamil Nadu Government, the DHC also conducted O-Level exams for camp-inmates at Chennai a few years ago. Teachers from Sri Lanka were available to coach the candidates, though only for a few weeks, and question papers and invigilators too were flown in from Sri Lanka for the purpose. However, this experiment too could not be repeated/replicated in the following years, to include possible A-Level exams, too.

After mindless attacks by local pan-Tamil groups, the ’mobile registration’ process – of DHC officials visiting district headquarters by turn – had to be given up. The SL officials had chosen weekends for the registration purpose to minimise hardship and loss of sundry earning for the refugees during the working week. Lately, there has also been some reluctance to help revive the ’mobile registration’ process – or, so it seems.

Otherwise, the Sri Lankan Government too would have to do enough by way of providing facilities for the returnees to settle down, mainly in the place of their original residence. It’s unclear how many of the refugees owned the residences that they had left or otherwise had a lien over the same – and how many of these homesteads might have changed hands, be it in the possession of the armed forces or fellow-Tamil encroachers.

Govt apparatus still cautious

The present political-change in Sri Lanka may be more conducive for the refugees to consider returning in large numbers, if only over a period. Yet, independent of the change and consequent perceptions, the Government Establishment in Sri Lanka, particularly the security apparatus, could be apprehensive about the LTTE-linked militant loyalties of at least some of them, and the consequent potential for trouble. These are for real, until the last embers of a dying separatist Tamil cause are doused wholly. It’s thus for the refugee population to reassure them that they meant no harm, now or later.

The ’Sinhala-Buddhist nationalist’ polity might be worried at the surge in the Tamil voter-number and population. Independent of the results that some of them have enthusiastically celebrated, the contribution of the Tamil-speaking population to present-day President Maithripala Sirisena’s victory would be an eternal cause for their unfounded worries for decades more to come. It’s another matter that the refugees, from nearer to home in India, and elsewhere, have the possible potential to tilt the political status quo within the community.

Post-poll in Sri Lanka, the national leaderships in the two countries have enthusiastically welcomed suggestions for the early return of willing refugees, housed in India. At the highest-level talks in Delhi, between President Sirisena and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the two sides have decided to take forward the efforts in this direction.

It does not require any reiteration that there would not be any coercive element in this regard. Nor would there be any indirect encouragement for them to return early, say, in the form of the Indian government holding back their monthly doles, rations and other facilities. At the same time, the Government of India can be expected to help and assist the returnees in every which way, if they volunteer – and only volunteer – to go back to their homeland.

Apart from the itemised list of funding and assistance that India would be extending, there have also been suggestions for the Indian Government to continue with the payment of doles, receivable in bank accounts in Sri Lanka, for a fixed period, say up to three years. Another suggestion has been for India to extend and expand the IDP housing scheme in the war-affected areas of Sri Lanka, to cover the refugees, particularly those now camping in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry.

The Government of India and that in Tamil Nadu could also be expected to continue with their educational concessions, and seat reservation for refugee families, in their higher educational institutions, wherever applicable, for a specific length of time. There are other specifics that the Governments in India may be willing to consider as and when presented appropriately.

Fear, intimidation and autonomy

However, there are palpable hurdles, many of them political, for the enthusiastic return of the refugees to their homeland. Taking a patronising view of things, the host Tamil Nadu Government jumped the gun even before the green flag had been pulled out for the refugees’ return, to declare that it would want the Sri Lankan armed forces withdrawn from the Tamil areas, before it could happen. While de-militarisation has been among the Tamils’ demands in the larger context neither the refugees, nor brethren back home, have made it a condition precedent for the former returning home.

The State Government has since gone beyond what Chief Minister Panneerselvam had conveyed to Prime Minister Modi in a letter last month. It was soon followed by the State’s decision not to participate in the multi-ministerial officials’ meeting called to discuss the issue in Delhi. In his policy-making annual address to the State Assembly, Governor K Rosaiah has since said that any meeting to discuss voluntary repatriation the refugees was premature and should be deferred in view of the prevailing atmosphere of fear and intimidation, among other things.

The State Government was committed to the peaceful, just and honourable resettlement of the refugees, the Governor said. Flagging specific concerns in relation to the government of a ’friendly neighbour’, the Governor spoke of the ’presence of the Army in Tamil areas, non-settlement of internally-displaced people and absence of any concrete and credible measures taken by the Sri Lankan Government’, as among the other issues in this regard.

"But it is of the view that voluntary repatriation can be countenanced only after proper rehabilitation of the internally- displaced Sri Lankan Tamils," Governor Rosaiah said. In this context, he stressed that a congenial atmosphere for the return of the refugees could be achieved only by fully restoring the autonomy and democratic rights of Tamil minorities, besides sufficient economic and political measures – again a sensitive political and constitutional issue in that country.

Portending trouble?

In and from the post-poll Sri Lanka under new regime with Tamil support, the Northern Provincial Council (NPC) resolution, alleging ’genocide’ in the end-game of the conclusive ’Eelam War IV" and the consequent demand for continuing with an international probe into ’accountability issues’ against the Sri Lankan armed forces, may have already come as a greater, emotional hurdle to refugee-return. It’s not about what has been said, or not said, but about what it might portend, even in passive socio-political terms, to life in the Tamil areas of Sri Lanka, particularly the Northern Province.

Northern Province Chief Minister and former Supreme Court Judge, C V Wigneswaran, may have conferred greater respectability and urgency to the issues that the resolution has flagged by his attesting to its content and piloting it in the Provincial Council. Wigneswaran may have also further ruffled the refugees’ hopes by declaring even more recently that there are over a hundred thousand war widows among the Tamils in the North. The acknowledged official figure for the Tamil war-widows earlier was 90,000, in the North and the East put together.

With the international community, starting with the US sponsor of the UNHRC resolution ordering an ’independent probe’ in March last year, and the UNHRC too agreeing to delaying the presentation of the investigation report, at the instance of the new Government in Sri Lanka, the reaction of the Tamil community in general, and that of the NPC on the one hand and the hard-line sections of the Sri Lankan Tamil Diaspora, are anxiously awaited by refugees who want to return home from India. Any rumbling on the ground would discourage the refugees in India in particular, and elsewhere, otherwise, from wanting to return home early.

Economic refugees

There is a non-Indian element to the whole ’refugee-return’ exercise. Considering that even five years after the end of the ethnic war in Sri Lanka, Tamils in the country keep taking dangerous boat-rides to nations such as Australia in search of greener pastures but blaming it on unsubstantiated military harassment, there is resistance to refugee-return from among the Tamils, including those with local citizenship, across the West.

There have even been claims/accusations against the West, though not always openly stated and substantiated, that some nations had taken a keener interest in ’accountability issues’ in Sri Lanka, only to try and create the ’right conditions’ for the early return of asylum-seekers and refugees in their midst. There have even been charges that those nations were manipulated on issues that were otherwise real, only to try and ensure that the refugees/asylum-seekers would not be sent back to Sri Lanka.

It is often argued that the continuing western interest in seeing the refugees in the Indian camps return home early also owed to their own concern about the return of those ’illegally’ staying back in their countries. The ’Indian example’ and precedent could then be used for them to ’encourage’ illegal migrants among them to return to Sri Lanka, early on – or, so goes the argument.

(The writer is a Senior Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Chennai Chapter)

Country Reports

Afghanistan

Pak army, ISI chiefs in Kabul

The Chief of Army Staff of Pakistan, Gen Raheel Sharif and the Director-General of the ISI Rizwan Akhtar were in Kabul this week for a one-day visit to discuss security issues between the two countries. During the meeting, Gen Sharif claimed that the insurgents carrying out attacks were enemies of both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Both sides vowed to explore possibilities of conducting joint operations to tackle the insurgents.

For more information see: "Pakistan’s Army and ISI Chiefs Arrive to Kabul", Tolo News, 17 February 2015; "Afghanistan’s enemy is Pakistan’s enemy, says army chief", Dawn, 17 February 2015

Peace talks to be revived

According to reports emerging from Afghanistan, President Ashraf Ghani is taking preliminary steps to begin peace talks with the Taliban again. President Ghani has begun meeting various stakeholders to ensure that all voices are taken into account if negotiations move forward. Senior Pakistani officials have claimed that Taliban officials, including Mullah Omar have been approached about the possibility of reopening such talks. Pakistani officials have also confirmed that the Taliban’s office in Doha has been revived and that initial contact between the Afghan government and the Taliban has already taken place.

For more information see : "Ghani Prepares for Peace Talks With Taliban Leadership in Coming Weeks", Tolo News, 19 February 2015; "Afghan Taliban’s Doha office revived: Pakistan officials", Dawn, 20 February 2015

Civilian casualties up

The 2014 report of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) on "Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict" has estimated a 22 percent increase in civilian casualties in 2014. The annual report puts the total number of dead and injured civilians at 10,548, which has been the highest figure recorded by the UN since 2009.

For more information see : "UNAMA report shows 22 percent rise in civilian casualties in Afghanistan", , Khaama Press, 18 February 2015

Bangladesh

Politics in conundrum

There seems to be no end to the political chaos in Bangladesh. The entire week country wide witnessed country wide shutdown enforced by opposition Bangladesh Nationalist party (BNP). Since 5th of January BNP has been staging country-wide shutdown to oust Shiekh Hasina led Awami League government. Also, political violence continued and there had been to improvement of the law and order situation. International community has expressed concern over the prevailing political condition of the country.

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has written to BNP leader Begum Khaleda Zia, expressing concern over the situation in the country. Meanwhile, a group from European Union visited Bangladesh to assess the situation. The EU delegation met leaders of both the political parties. But efforts of the international community do not seem to alter the condition. BNP has welcomed the EU’s call for a dialogue but Prime Minister Sheikh Haisna has categorically said that no dialogue will be possible unless there is end to violence.Bangladesh is witnessing continuous country wide Around 71 people died in the political violence since shutdown began in January.

For more information see : "One killed in violence", The Independent, 16 February 2015; "UN chief writes to Hasina, Khaleda", The Independent, 18 February 2015, "48-hour Hartal, Again", The Daily Star, 18 February 2015; "12 sustain burns", The Independent, 20 February 2015; "Dialogue amid violence not a good idea, AL tells EP team", The Independent, 20 February 2015

$8.69-b projects with China

China has responded positively to Bangladesh’s request for financial cooperation in important projects. The Chinese embassy recently informed the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) that the list of 15 development projects submitted to Beijing, involving over US$8.69 billion, for inclusion in China’s 13th five-year plan (2016-2020), would be considered positively. "

For more information see : "China sends positive feedback for $8.69 billion projects", The Independent, 17 February 2015

Security talks with India

The Home Secretaries of India and Bangladesh met this week in Delhi. At the meeting the two sides reviewed a wide range of security issues including terrorism, insurgency, smuggling, and trafficking. Bangladesh has expressed its concern at a recent "rise" in the number of killings of Bangladeshi nationals by the Indian Border Security Force (BSF).

The major outcome of the meeting was consensus among the two countries to strengthen the border management system through "enhanced joint patrol and regular meetings at local levels". Bangladesh side was led by Senior Secretary for home affairs Md Mozammel Haque Khane, while Union Home Secretary LC Goyal led the Indian team.

For more information see : "Dhaka expresses concern over ’rising’ border killing", Bdnews24.com, 18 January 2015

Bhutan

India’s ’smiling squads’ on border

India’s border guard force Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) has replaced its gun-toting troops with a ’smiling’ non-combative personnel team to interact and frisk people who cross-over to India from Indian borders of Nepal and Bhutan.

For more information see : "SSB deploys unarmed ’smiling’ squads at Nepal, Bhutan borders", www.zeenews.india.com, 18 February 2015

Drop in crime rate

The Royal Bhutan Police has said that there has been a drop in the nationwide crime rate by about 15 percent compared to last year. The RBP said that compared to 2013 when 3288 crime cases were recorded, 2014 saw 2775 cases.